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  1. #1
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    BIG Double Top Failure in SP500

    I just shorted the $#@! out of the SP500 (6/14) futures from 1867-1865 area, after a failure at/near the recent all time highs in SP500

    Short anywhere with a stop-loss at 1879 (basis 6/14 futures)

    Expecting nasty pull back

    Click here to enlarge

    Market had a multi range sell off and test of the high then a fail and fall of >> 1 ATR

    Have fun
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  2. #2
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    Swing trade I'm assuming

    If we close below 1860 I think you'll get the move. Good luck
    E92 N54 3368lbs

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    Nice call G.A.

    Really wish we tested it a third time and that I shorted the Qs!

    What's your target?
    E92 N54 3368lbs

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    I have no idea what this means.

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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    I have no idea what this means.
    As summarized as I can

    The chart he posted is called a candlestick chart. Candle stick charting has a form of analysis, general term is technical analysis. The chart is of the S and P 500 which is a market cap index of some of the largest publicly traded companies including Ford, Harley D, Auto zone etc.

    He's using technical analysis to bet against or "short" the index.


    And exhale..
    E92 N54 3368lbs

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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by R.G. Click here to enlarge
    As summarized as I can

    The chart he posted is called a candlestick chart. Candle stick charting has a form of analysis, general term is technical analysis. The chart is of the S and P 500 which is a market cap index of some of the largest publicly traded companies including Ford, Harley D, Auto zone etc.

    He's using technical analysis to bet against or "short" the index.


    And exhale..
    I'll stick to building websites.

  7. #7
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by R.G. Click here to enlarge
    Nice call G.A.

    Really wish we tested it a third time and that I shorted the Qs!

    What's your target?

    Not SWING trading... this is based on an old MACRO model I developed when I was head of prop trading at Deutsche Bank (Australia) in the early 1990's... this is seeking a LARGE trend reversal and major sell off.... we risk minisucle $$$ to make MAJOR $$$$$$$$$$$$

    I have a stop at 1880 and will let this run for a LONG TIME if correct

    My gut says I will get run down this time but this market reminds me of Mar 2000 when I lost MIllskys only to make much more 4/00 - 1/01........... Tesla at $250 is a laugh, AMZN above $200 is a JOKE..... etc etc
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  8. #8
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Group.america Click here to enlarge
    Not SWING trading... this is based on an old MACRO model I developed when I was head of prop trading at Deutsche Bank (Australia) in the early 1990's... this is seeking a LARGE trend reversal and major sell off.... we risk minisucle $$$ to make MAJOR $$$$$$$$$$$$

    I have a stop at 1880 and will let this run for a LONG TIME if correct

    My gut says I will get run down this time but this market reminds me of Mar 2000 when I lost MIllskys only to make much more 4/00 - 1/01........... Tesla at $250 is a laugh, AMZN above $200 is a JOKE..... etc etc

    Oh i see. An old schooler. I remember those days, I was trying to catch 1/8ths day trading haha.

    Large scale trend reversal huh, any ideas to what may be the catalyst? The fed, Ukraine, earnings? Or indifferent on catalyst and a pure technical play based model?

    Regardless good luck. Nice to know a seasoned guy like yourself is a part of this board!
    Last edited by R.G.; 03-25-2014 at 06:49 PM.
    E92 N54 3368lbs

  9. #9
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by R.G. Click here to enlarge
    Oh i see. An old schooler. I remember those days, I was trying to catch 1/8ths day trading haha.

    Large scale trend reversal huh, any ideas to what may be the catalyst? The fed, Ukraine, earnings? Or indifferent on catalyst and a pure technical play?

    Regardless good luck. Nice to know a seasoned guy like yourself is a part of this board!

    News is usually not an indicator of a trend reversal (well if we forget Greenspan tightening in 1994)

    Markets usually fail when

    1. Everyone is long
    2. Everyone is bullish
    3. Everyone thinks this thing cannot stop (see media)
    4. Either your Nanna or Pakistani taxi driver is giving you tips Click here to enlarge

    Then wait for a simple technical failure like the classic double top

    B. Use a STOP-LOSS
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    Click here to enlarge



  10. #10
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    BTW I am never wrong statistically on these things
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  11. #11
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    Are we there yet Group? Is sentiment really that bullish? If Sticky had asked for a stock tip instead of the stay with what I know statement I think it would have been perfect anecdotal evidence.

    Once the fed raises rates it will be time to shift, till then I'll be net long.
    E92 N54 3368lbs

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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by R.G. Click here to enlarge
    Are we there yet Group? Is sentiment really that bullish? If Sticky had asked for a stock tip instead of the stay with what I know statement I think it would have been perfect anecdotal evidence.

    Once the fed raises rates it will be time to shift, till then I'll be net long.

    Just playing stats as I usually do (I am more of a bond/commodity trader) but in 2000 I made my fortune in similar circumstances... Everyone bullish tech crap... I shorted EMC at $105 back then and held the short for years....

    I am looking at a 2 year move down towards 1350 SP500... I will stay short unless I get a buy signal or my 1880 stop is hit

    I may be early but I am risking 10 points on a 100 lot ($50,000 risk) for $500k per 100 points down in the SP500

    Time will tell if I win
    2005 Porsche 996 TTS RWD - Eurodyne 60-130 in 6.50s
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    Click here to enlarge



  13. #13
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    Click here to enlargeAMZN is a $100 stock as is TSLA, GOOG is a $800 stock etc ... and they are the best names in the market... so much real dog$#@! is overpriced in nana land
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  14. #14
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    There is also this happening

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101528314

    Behind the massive trade that spooked the market

    Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex
    1 Hour Ago
    CNBC.com
    Click here to enlarge
    Click here to enlarge
    Click here to enlarge
    Click here to enlarge
    Click here to enlarge
    Click here to enlarge



    6
    COMMENTSJoin the Discussion


    After a positive start to Wednesday's session, the stock market took a serious intraday slide that saw it lose more than half a percent in half an hour, and took the S&P from positive to negative on the day.
    While an especially strong five-year Treasury note auction is another likely culprit in the intraday decline, many traders blamed the turnaround on a massive bearish options trade on the S&P 500 that was effectively a multibillion-dollar short bet on the market.


    Starting at 11:57 a.m. ET, a major player started buying May 1,995-strike put options on the S&P 500 for $133 per contract. The trade was not executed in a single block, but over many smaller trades between 11:57 and 1:12 p.m. (and the prices of the contract varied, getting as low as $131.70 as the market declined). On the whole, 15,450 contracts were purchased. And since each contract controls 100 shares, this trade cost about $200 million.
    Since a put gives its buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying security at that given strike price, this implies a bearish bet on the market that will make money if the S&P 500 is below 1,862 (1,995 minus $133) at May expiration.
    However, since this trade was deeply "in the money," the trader does not appear to be making a speculative options bet, but rather to be expressing a significant bearish view on the market as a whole. Indeed, this trade is effectively a $2.8 billion short bet on the S&P.
    "It puts pressure on the market in the short term," said Brian Stutland of the Stutland Volatility Group. "I don't know if it necessarily means that the market's going down, but that's definitely weighing on the market today."
    Last edited by Group.america; 03-26-2014 at 04:41 PM.
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    Click here to enlarge



  15. #15
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    You know Group, I saw this headline cross the wires and I immediately thought of you. "That son of a b!tch was ahead of this freaking play".
    I manage a small fund (not even required to report to SEC type fund) and was on the phone letting it be known that my eject button is armed.
    Might be closer to an intrest rate adjustment then I wanted to believe.
    E92 N54 3368lbs

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    RG - I lived in Japan when they're bubble burst... my old boss at CSFB was legendary in Tokyo for being one of the foreigners who busted the Nikkei when it was near 40,000

    By the time I got to Tokyo in late 1993 the Nikkei was trading 18,000 - 24,000... In 1995 after the Nick Leeson blow up they cut rates to ZERO....... 20 years later they are still ZERO and in the mean time the Nikkei went as low as sub 7,000 and is now what 14,500 and change or so

    If the FED raises rates here, the stock market will poop itself along with this dodgy highly manipulated economy

    For now, thsi MARKET IS SO STRONG... the bull is killing the bear but when the big fat GRIZZLY awakes he will rip everyone's fookin head off

    I tightened my stops to breakeven @ 1868.25 average..... If we do not get belwo the reaction low last week (1825 or so) then the bull will try to ramp this $#@! up again

    Good luck y'all
    2005 Porsche 996 TTS RWD - Eurodyne 60-130 in 6.50s
    2015 Audi A3 2.0 TFSI - Eurodyne 0 - 100 in 10.67s
    2015 McLaren 650S (RHD) - UK - 1/3rd owner yet to drive


    Click here to enlarge



  17. #17
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Group.america Click here to enlarge
    RG - I lived in Japan when they're bubble burst... my old boss at CSFB was legendary in Tokyo for being one of the foreigners who busted the Nikkei when it was near 40,000

    By the time I got to Tokyo in late 1993 the Nikkei was trading 18,000 - 24,000... In 1995 after the Nick Leeson blow up they cut rates to ZERO....... 20 years later they are still ZERO and in the mean time the Nikkei went as low as sub 7,000 and is now what 14,500 and change or so

    If the FED raises rates here, the stock market will poop itself along with this dodgy highly manipulated economy

    For now, thsi MARKET IS SO STRONG... the bull is killing the bear but when the big fat GRIZZLY awakes he will rip everyone's fookin head off

    I tightened my stops to breakeven @ 1868.25 average..... If we do not get belwo the reaction low last week (1825 or so) then the bull will try to ramp this $#@! up again

    Good luck y'all

    Group,

    Sounds like you have a book you should be working on about your experiences! Get to work!


    Couple of things. First TSLA and AMZN are the extremes in this market and there will always be the extremes. They have been leaders but momentum is shifting as of late out of theses momentum plays and back in to some real fundamentals. GOOG does not belong on your list in my opinion. I wouldn't be long but the value is still there with a company like google.

    There's no argument about the Japan lost decades to the U.S. economic situation that you haven't heard before. Stagflation, zombie banks, aging population, GDP growth blah blah so I dont sign on to that theory.

    Let me throw something at you to think about in regards to GDP. I'll use MSFT as an example. MSFT develops the intellectual property then sends it to Asia to be produced. Asian countries package OUR intellectual property and sell it back to the us. The numbers don't always tell the whole story.


    Back to the market. I'm still uneasy about this bull run. To me I take that as it does still have legs like you said. I completely agree that if we get a correction its going to be 6-8%+ and if it stumbles to rebound look out.
    E92 N54 3368lbs

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    Excellent points RG

    Google is a great powerhouse company as is it appears Tesla... just think theyre overvalued here.... real meaning = many bad stocks are running on nitrous only

    I have never been worried about USA as a country until now and unlike Japan we do not have savings to balance out debts if things get ugly

    I really pray that I will be wrong because it is next to impossible now to plan any long term investments in any genre because of the phony FED gift of free cash n carry to all large businesses at the same time small business, mum n dad, middle class, working class etc are being shafted by govt messes........

    For now, all is shaky good, but through my missus business we see how terrible things like retail really are......
    2005 Porsche 996 TTS RWD - Eurodyne 60-130 in 6.50s
    2015 Audi A3 2.0 TFSI - Eurodyne 0 - 100 in 10.67s
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  19. #19
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Group.america Click here to enlarge
    Excellent points RG

    Google is a great powerhouse company as is it appears Tesla... just think theyre overvalued here.... real meaning = many bad stocks are running on nitrous only

    I have never been worried about USA as a country until now and unlike Japan we do not have savings to balance out debts if things get ugly

    I really pray that I will be wrong because it is next to impossible now to plan any long term investments in any genre because of the phony FED gift of free cash n carry to all large businesses at the same time small business, mum n dad, middle class, working class etc are being shafted by govt messes........

    For now, all is shaky good, but through my missus business we see how terrible things like retail really are......
    It's not good but man if I can survive it can't be that horrible.

  20. #20
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    Stopped out this morning 1864.5 on SP futures..... teensy profit/loss
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  21. #21
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    Just hit a new HIGH Click here to enlarge

    Click here to enlarge

    Trade 1 would have been stopped out (I got out at inflection yesterday)

    Now, if market falls to 1861.5 or so we short it again with a stop at new high (looking for major trend turn point) unless it goes 1 average true range above the old high which is about 1894......

    If it hits 1894 before 1861.5 then we just watch it
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  22. #22
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    Watching this closely. Thanks for the update Group
    E92 N54 3368lbs

  23. #23
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    i'm actually hoping it just stays here at 1870 for day and then tests up one more time, then come down slowly and collapse

    The bull is strong

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  24. #24
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    But so far

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  25. #25
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    1883.5 new all time futures high SP500

    Here buly, bully, bully
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