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  1. #2226
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    And I'd disagree with numbers telling you a whole lot in football. To date there is not a solid basis for individual player analysis and comparison like baseball. Even from a team standpoint the ratings are flawed. Thus far, the best team rating system I have seen is the Aikman system. By that the Ravens, not adjusted for the injuries noted were ranked 20 for the season. However, we have seen that same unit's core do amazing things over the course of their careers...the last two weeks are just an extention of their being on the field at the same time in addition to other variables.

    As to the losses ultimately resting on Manning's shoulders? I get that QB is the single most important position in sports. And again, he did not play his best game yesterday admittedly. But to blame him directly and primarily, and I don't mean this to be offensive, is ignorant. However, most sports fans I find extremely ignorant...so in therefore, ignorant is the norm and I am the outlier.
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  2. #2227
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    And I'd disagree with numbers telling you a whole lot in football. To date there is not a solid basis for individual player analysis and comparison like baseball.
    It is not at statistically driven as baseball but saying the numbers don't tell you much is a bit absurd. What does a 20% completion percentage tell you? How about 1 td and 5 interceptions? I don't have to watch the game to know that quarterback is not playing well.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    As to the losses ultimately resting on Manning's shoulders? I get that QB is the single most important position in sports. And again, he did not play his best game yesterday admittedly. But to blame him directly and primarily, and I don't mean this to be offensive, is ignorant.
    I would agree but ultimately it was in his hands and he blew it. Even if there are other mistakes, which there were, he is the most important player on the field and it's up to him to help his team overcome those struggles. He couldn't do it.

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  3. #2228
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    Statistical argument to prove my point -

    Per the aikman ratings, the Bronco's def is rated #3, and the Raven's Offense is ranked #15. So the Bronco's def allowed the #15 offense to score 35 points in regulation on them. Doesn't that seem from an overall level far more offensive a transgression than Manning's pics?

    I understand the timing of the last pic and the emotional aspect and the desire to blame an individual, but I'd argue that the fact above is far more indicative of the truth.
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  4. #2229
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    It is not at statistically driven as baseball but saying the numbers don't tell you much is a bit absurd. What does a 20% completion percentage tell you? How about 1 td and 5 interceptions? I don't have to watch the game to know that quarterback is not playing well.



    I would agree but ultimately it was in his hands and he blew it. Even if there are other mistakes, which there were, he is the most important player on the field and it's up to him to help his team overcome those struggles. He couldn't do it.
    Wait, what exactly are we talking about? Peyton's line from yesterday is 28/43 and 3:2 TD:Int....His career playoff numbers are almost identical to that day in every way.

    Further, while it is incumbent on him to perform, I do believe he was adequate, isn't also incumbent for the coaches to game plan and adjust, and the defense to do their job? Lets not forget that that was a home game. Defense has a clear advantage in that stadium.
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  5. #2230
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    Per the aikman ratings, the Bronco's def is rated #3, and the Raven's Offense is ranked #15. So the Bronco's def allowed the #15 offense to score 35 points in regulation on them. Doesn't that seem from an overall level far more offensive a transgression than Manning's pics?
    I think that is taking stats out of context as you are assuming a direct correlation between a number 3 defense equating to holding a certain number offense to a certain number of points like it is set in stone. Games change based on conditions, weather, injuries, location, etc. If there is a special teams TD (like in this game forcing the Ravens to throw deep) and all kinds of other factors that don't mean a number 3 defense will always produce the same result but it should tell you that defense is very strong.

    The Broncos defensive numbers obviously include a components for the red zone, passing, turnovers, running game, sacks, etc. If you break it down further it will tell you more. There most certainly is worthwhile information in there and a coach would be foolish to ignore any of those numbers when gameplanning.

    It isn't as direct as baseball but the stats are certainly valid.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    I understand the timing of the last pic and the emotional aspect and the desire to blame an individual, but I'd argue that the fact above is far more indicative of the truth.
    It's a team game but once again Peyton had the ball in his hands with the opportunity to win and his mistake sealed it. A lot led up to it but it was Peyton's pick that ended it. Just what happened.

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  6. #2231
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    Wait, what exactly are we talking about? Peyton's line from yesterday is 28/43 and 3:2 TD:Int....His career playoff numbers are almost identical to that day in every way.
    Ok, but in this instance isn't it when pick number 2 came that mattered?

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    Further, while it is incumbent on him to perform, I do believe he was adequate, isn't also incumbent for the coaches to game plan and adjust, and the defense to do their job? Lets not forget that that was a home game. Defense has a clear advantage in that stadium.
    I do not disagree, coaching was a huge factor and the Broncos staff made huge mistakes namely in the secondary.

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  7. #2232
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    I don't have to watch the game to know that quarterback is not playing well.
    Really? A stat line will tell you how much pressure a qb was under? weather conditions that affect a passing game? coaching decisions? whether receivers are running good routes? how many of those pics are a result of a receiver falling down or breaking off a route incorrectly? or balls that a receiver should have caught? or didn't make an aggressive attempt to catch?

    Tell me again how you don't have to watch a game to know. Think about that statement for a minute. Lets apply that to a GM...how long do you think that GM lasts in the league?
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  8. #2233
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    [QUOTE=Sticky;377625]Ok, but in this instance isn't it when pick number 2 came that mattered?
    [QUOTE]

    Yes it did...my point is, it shouldn't have had the defense done its job and/or Fox gone for and gotten the FG at the end of regulation (and we'd be having quite a different discussion about manning) it should never have come to that. Therefore, again, my point is that it is easy to assign the blame there on the surface, when you dig deeper and think, it isn't so obvious.

    The real issue is that most sports fans are not willing to and many are incapable of thinking deeply...they prefer to emote and react....assigning blame wontonly on easy targets.
    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
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  9. #2234
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    Really? A stat line will tell you how much pressure a qb was under?
    A stat line like I provided is beyond sub par for a professional NFL quarterback I don't care how porous the offensive line is.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    weather conditions that affect a passing game? coaching decisions? whether receivers are running good routes? how many of those pics are a result of a receiver falling down or breaking off a route incorrectly? or balls that a receiver should have caught? or didn't make an aggressive attempt to catch?
    Your right these are all factors but that stat line tells me the quarterback was terrible. There is no excuse for 5 int's even if the coaching is bad, tipped passes, or whatever else.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    Tell me again how you don't have to watch a game to know. Think about that statement for a minute. Lets apply that to a GM...how long do you think that GM lasts in the league?
    You would prefer to watch the game but if a GM can't gather anything from the numbers he is a poor choice for GM.

    If I look at historical running backs and I see a guy averaging 6 yards per carry his whole careers when coaches, weather, location, lineman, etc., all change you are telling me you can't gather anything from that information?

    If the numbers are as useless as you say why even have them? I think you are discounting them. I also think there is a reason Peyton Manning has a higher quarterback radtng, completion %, yardage, etc., than say David Carr or Rex Grossman.

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  10. #2235
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    Yes it did...my point is, it shouldn't have had the defense done its job and/or Fox gone for and gotten the FG at the end of regulation (and we'd be having quite a different discussion about manning) it should never have come to that.
    It shouldn't have. But it did. And Peyton threw the pick. If he didn't throw the pick and drove them down would Fox's mistake have mattered?

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  11. #2236
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    Anyway we'll come back to this there are two games today and I have a bunch of articles to write.

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  12. #2237
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    I think that is taking stats out of context as you are assuming a direct correlation between a number 3 defense equating to holding a certain number offense to a certain number of points like it is set in stone. Games change based on conditions, weather, injuries, location, etc. If there is a special teams TD (like in this game forcing the Ravens to throw deep) and all kinds of other factors that don't mean a number 3 defense will always produce the same result but it should tell you that defense is very strong.
    I used that as a more meaningful statistcal argument to prove a point about how statistics in football are very misleading and far less meaningful than in other sports....and I think you just agreed with me.
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  13. #2238
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    I used that as a more meaningful statistcal argument to prove a point about how statistics in football are very misleading and far less meaningful than in other sports....and I think you just agreed with me.
    I did. My point being there is far more meaning in them than you attributed and if you have the context of the game to put them in they are not misleading whatsoever.

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  14. #2239
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    It shouldn't have. But it did. And Peyton threw the pick. If he didn't throw the pick and drove them down would Fox's mistake have mattered?
    Ahh...but if you are going to live by statistics you are going to die by statistics. Manning's historical TD:INT playoff ratio is almost exactly 3:2. Therefore, if you believe that past counting stats are truly an indicator of future performance, then you would logically assume that the more you allow peyton to throw, the more likely it is that he will throw that 2nd pick...knowing that, why would a coach ever allow him to throw....because the stat is not a true indicator....
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  15. #2240
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    Anyway, in reality we are arguing degrees of blame. We both seem to recognize the key elements of the Bronco's downfall, its just a matter of how much blame we place on one idividual where we differ.....
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  16. #2241
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    Ahh...but if you are going to live by statistics you are going to die by statistics. Manning's historical TD:INT playoff ratio is almost exactly 3:2. Therefore, if you believe that past counting stats are truly an indicator of future performance, then you would logically assume that the more you allow peyton to throw, the more likely it is that he will throw that 2nd pick...knowing that, why would a coach ever allow him to throw....because the stat is not a true indicator....
    I didn't say past dictates present or future. Guy can get sick, hurt, or whatever. The past definitely gives you an educated basis for the future though.

    Your assumption is based on the stats being 100% accurate. A guy hitting .400 can still strikeout or get out. If you know he might be an out, why have him go up to the plate in the first place?

    You are treating stats as set in stone rather than as beneficial educational information. Discounting them is foolish IMO.

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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    Anyway, in reality we are arguing degrees of blame. We both seem to recognize the key elements of the Bronco's downfall, its just a matter of how much blame we place on one idividual where we differ.....
    I think if the coaching and secondary were adjusted we would have never gotten to the point where Peyton threw the pick.

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  18. #2243
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    Good discussion Sticky...and thank you for not getting upset as many do...
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    I think if the coaching and secondary were adjusted we would have never gotten to the point where Peyton threw the pick.
    Or.....if the Manning led offense would have picked up another 1st down in regulation we wouldnt have seen overtime. He also had multiple chances in overtime to get them in fg range to win but failed. There are multiple qbs in the league that would have made good on at least one of those 3 chances.

    Look, no one is saying the defense/coaching was great but as bad as they played the Broncos still had multiple chances to win the game and he blew it. Not once but three times. I love Peyton as much as anyone but when do the excuses end? And that pick 6 should have been PI. ...but whatever!
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Alvillas Click here to enlarge
    Good discussion Sticky...and thank you for not getting upset as many do...
    It's always others that get upset with me and then all hell breaks loose.

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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by KB Click here to enlarge
    Look, no one is saying the defense/coaching was great but as bad as they played the Broncos still had multiple chances to win the game and he blew it. Not once but three times
    Sorry, those are on Peyton.

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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by KB Click here to enlarge
    Or.....if the Manning led offense would have picked up another 1st down in regulation we wouldnt have seen overtime. He also had multiple chances in overtime to get them in fg range to win but failed. There are multiple qbs in the league that would have made good on at least one of those 3 chances.

    Look, no one is saying the defense/coaching was great but as bad as they played the Broncos still had multiple chances to win the game and he blew it. Not once but three times. I love Peyton as much as anyone but when do the excuses end? And that pick 6 should have been PI. ...but whatever!
    Sports idiocy on parade. Are you a regular caller to the boers and bernstien show?
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    Sorry, those are on Peyton.
    I agree...


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    After leaving my car out during the ice storm:

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    This is to intense for me ill come back Monday
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