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  1. #26
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by LostMarine Click here to enlarge
    when, and who decided to start though? Im probably better off googling it though
    Our government started with debt from the Revolutionary war, it's always been a factor. The modern system originated in 1913.

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    This relates pretty well.
    Click here to enlarge

  3. #28
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by ecampbell Click here to enlarge
    As an FX trader I can tell you the end is near.

    If you look at what Greece did to the EURO what do you think the reaction will be when the US goes the same way.
    This has always been a false equivalency to me. The US is in no way going to go the way of Greece. A country that can pay its foreign public debt in its own currency and runs its own central bank does not end up like Greece.

    As previously mentioned, as long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency, with no credible competitors on the horizon, the Greek situation will never be analogous to the US monetary situation.

    The US is approx. 20% of world GDP whereas Greece is approx 0.4% of world GDP. The real question is the Euro, approx 25% of world GDP. If they ever get their sh@t over there, then a real potential competitor to the dollar as a reserve currency would be in play, but don't count on it.

  4. #29
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    A country that can pay its foreign public debt in its own currency and runs its own central bank does not end up like Greece.
    It pays its foreign debt by printing money. It can end up worse.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    As previously mentioned, as long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency, with no credible competitors on the horizon, the Greek situation will never be analogous to the US monetary situation.
    I think as long as we abuse the privilege to be the world's reserve currency we are definitely enticing competitors and speeding that prospect along.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    The US is approx. 20% of world GDP whereas Greece is approx 0.4% of world GDP. The real question is the Euro, approx 25% of world GDP. If they ever get their sh@t over there, then a real potential competitor to the dollar as a reserve currency would be in play, but don't count on it.
    % of the GDP just means when the US falls it will affect more of the world not less. Because of our size we are even more $#@!ed.

  5. #30
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    My question is, as a potential small business owner, what does this mean to me? Should I hold off or continue on my merry way?

  6. #31
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Itsbrokeagain Click here to enlarge
    My question is, as a potential small business owner, what does this mean to me? Should I hold off or continue on my merry way?
    No real way to predict when or how it will happen. If hyper-inflation occurs, we're all $#@!ed unless you hold gold.

    We really don't have a ton of time on this. This should be resolved right now like by the time you finish reading this sentence but Obama's absurd spending hasn't helped things and just made them worse.

    Here:


  7. #32
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    Hmm all those gold commercials...but unless you physically own gold 'owning' gold in your portfolio could mean nothing.

  8. #33
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Itsbrokeagain Click here to enlarge
    Hmm all those gold commercials...but unless you physically own gold 'owning' gold in your portfolio could mean nothing.
    I'd prefer to physically have it. And be very well armed while sitting on top of my pile of gold.

  9. #34
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    that sucks I guess

  10. #35
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    Looks like I'm in the wrong business then :/.
    Click here to enlarge

  11. #36
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    As in politics, if you are basing your gold buys on commercials, you ain't gonna make any money. The only way to truly own gold is to physically own it. Most gold held in vaults has multiple claims on it. The buys/sells of central banks are opaque to you as a trader/investor, so buyer beware.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    It pays its foreign debt by printing money. It can end up worse.
    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    I think as long as we abuse the privilege to be the world's reserve currency we are definitely enticing competitors and speeding that prospect along.
    We own the bank and there is no reserve currency competitor. We can abuse the privilege for quite a while, before things external fcuk us more than we fcuk ourselves through boneheaded policies. What is all this US falls bullship? If we fall the World War that preceded that fall will give you more than ample time to try to find a island somewhere in the middle of BFE where you can sit on your pile of physical gold and wait it out.

  12. #37
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    As long as Draghi prints more Euros than Big Ben prints Bucks, the dollar will get stronger..
    1995 BMW M3GT nr:111/350 TwinTurbo and some other mods.

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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Itsbrokeagain Click here to enlarge
    My question is, as a potential small business owner, what does this mean to me? Should I hold off or continue on my merry way?
    Aim to run a healthy surplus on top of your profit margin, so when these foreign countries look to cash in on US Debt & taxes go up (Fed Govt/Treasury putting the real cost on American tax payers), you can actually afford to pay the taxes & still make money (and not close shop).
    COBB AP ProTune by Bren of ///Bren Tuning
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    "The moment money becomes your motivation, you are immediately not as good as someone who is motivated by passion and internal will." -A. Senna

  14. #39
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by benzy89 Click here to enlarge
    Aim to run a healthy surplus on top of your profit margin, so when these foreign countries look to cash in on US Debt & taxes go up (Fed Govt/Treasury putting the real cost on American tax payers), you can actually afford to pay the taxes & still make money (and not close shop).
    Yeah im usually very profit oriented, and i will always choose to reinvest in the shop first before personal spending.

  15. #40
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    We own the bank and there is no reserve currency competitor. We can abuse the privilege for quite a while, before things external fcuk us more than we fcuk ourselves through boneheaded policies. What is all this US falls bullship? If we fall the World War that preceded that fall will give you more than ample time to try to find a island somewhere in the middle of BFE where you can sit on your pile of physical gold and wait it out.
    Not really sure what you are trying to say.

    There are reserve currency competitors just none as strong as the dollar. My point being the dollar continually weakening instead of strengthening only makes the position as reserve currency more precarious.

    I the dollar was consistently getting stronger your point may have some logic but eventually China will get tired of buying US Debt when the US turns right around and devalues the dollar. It's like me selling you a car at markup and then the next day dropping prices of all the same cars. Would you be happy?

  16. #41
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by M3GTtt Click here to enlarge
    As long as Draghi prints more Euros than Big Ben prints Bucks, the dollar will get stronger..
    Ben is now printing money indefinitely. It's $#@!ing insane.

  17. #42
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    Funney enough.. this QE-madness is not doing anything constructive and good for the long term, its only preserving the value of the uber rich.. inflating the value of worthless equity at the cost of good equity, and creating value in the bonds of broke companies, keeping them alive so they can slowly kill off the good companies...

    Nonsense.. madness,,
    1995 BMW M3GT nr:111/350 TwinTurbo and some other mods.

  18. #43
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Itsbrokeagain Click here to enlarge
    My question is, as a potential small business owner, what does this mean to me? Should I hold off or continue on my merry way?
    My opinion is to go for it. If your business plan presents you with an acceptable to you ROI/ROE take the risk.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    There are reserve currency competitors just none as strong as the dollar. My point being the dollar continually weakening instead of strengthening only makes the position as reserve currency more precarious.
    In the forex world strengthening and weakening are relativistic not absolute. Simplistically a strong dollar benefits imports as we can buy more offshore junk and a weak dollar allows us to sell our junk offshore cheaper. Thats why as mentioned in some other thread, all central banks manipulate their currencies.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    China will get tired of buying US Debt when the US turns right around and devalues the dollar
    China won't do $#@! except for continue to manipulate its currency wrt to the dollar to meet its own needs at home. Through most of Obama's term, Yuan has strengthened against the dollar, but could turn on a dime if the Chinese so desired. You can only synthetically trade China's currency, so market forces are not in play.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    It's like me selling you a car at markup and then the next day dropping prices of all the same cars. Would you be happy?
    Would I be happy? No, but this happens all the time in markets. Buy an ECU tune the day before a sale and your pissed and totally at the mercy of the seller to adjust the pricing. Most of the time you get squat.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    Ben is now printing money indefinitely. It's $#@!ing insane.
    It is insane and past time for the Fed to step aside. IMHO, monetary policy has carried this country as far as it can, but the Central bank has no confidence in our legishators to address fiscal policy, hence they keep pissing on the finance bonfire that congress won't put out.

    My belief is that inflation will come roaring back as the economy improves and the Fed then raises interest rates to stoopid levels to rein it in. Start working on your inflation strategies and indicators now so when the time comes you know what to do!

  19. #44
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    In the forex world strengthening and weakening are relativistic not absolute. Simplistically a strong dollar benefits imports as we can buy more offshore junk and a weak dollar allows us to sell our junk offshore cheaper. Thats why as mentioned in some other thread, all central banks manipulate their currencies.
    We have never manipulated our currency to the degree we are now.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    China won't do $#@! except for continue to manipulate its currency wrt to the dollar to meet its own needs at home. Through most of Obama's term, Yuan has strengthened against the dollar, but could turn on a dime if the Chinese so desired. You can only synthetically trade China's currency, so market forces are not in play.
    You can't predict this. The fact is if I keep buying assets that keep getting devalued I'm eventually going to stop. We can't sell debt forever and then devalue that debt on top of it.

    China manipulates their currency but not in the same fashion. It's a currency war of sorts.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    Would I be happy? No, but this happens all the time in markets. Buy an ECU tune the day before a sale and your pissed and totally at the mercy of the seller to adjust the pricing. Most of the time you get squat.
    One is a physical manufactured product that comparatively low volume. They other is a currency with an impact on the world. You don't put dollars on sale. And also, goods can appreciate but when has the dollar suddenly increased in value? This downward trend for almost a century now is quite alarming don't you think?

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    My belief is that inflation will come roaring back as the economy improves and the Fed then raises interest rates to stoopid levels to rein it in. Start working on your inflation strategies and indicators now so when the time comes you know what to do!
    Inflation is here it's hyper-inflation I'm concerned about. They won't be able to do anything about it.

  20. #45
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    Gotta start reading...

  21. #46
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    We have never manipulated our currency to the degree we are now.
    We have always manipulated our currency on a regular basis. Every Fed meeting has the potential for direct manipulation, but usually it is indirect through the Fed indicating its bias in how it words its statements. My guess is Paul Volcker probably intervened in the currency markets more when he raised the Fed funds rate to 20% in the late 70's.

    I think the biggest difference between then and now is twofold. First transparency of the Fed begun under Greenspan and has continued under Bernanke. It used to be that you didn't know why the Fed did what it did until it acted and then the reasoning wouldn't be released forever until the meeting minutes were published or the chairman would be hauled in front of Congress for testimony. The second reason is the ease with which you or I can trade currencies. This is a relatively recent phenomena compared to the history of the central bank. Only banks, institutions, large corporations etc had this access before the trading vehicles that you see everywhere now (ETF's, forex accounts, futures...).

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    China manipulates their currency but not in the same fashion.
    True. China operates on a currency peg to the dollar. They can change that peg as they desire to meet their needs, there is no free market trading in their currency.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    It's a currency war of sorts.
    It is a war with ongoing battles fought by central banks the world over. Anytime you read or hear about a central bank changing their rates is a currency manipulation. They change for internal economic reasons as well as in response to the behavior of other central banks. The external reasons are where the relativistic nature comes in.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    One is a physical manufactured product that comparatively low volume. They other is a currency with an impact on the world. You don't put dollars on sale. And also, goods can appreciate but when has the dollar suddenly increased in value? This downward trend for almost a century now is quite alarming don't you think?
    Currency is just another asset class. The dollar appreciated in value relative to Asian currencies in the 1990's during the Clinton administration. It was a specific policy pursued by Robert Rubin, Clinton's treasury Secretary. Many economists believe this led to the Asian currency crisis due to the dollar pegs certain asian nations had at the time.

    As long as there is fiat currency, inflation will always be there. There is no choice. That's why you always see the central bank targeting a particular inflation rate as opposed to a no inflation environment, which is pretty much impossible as well as undesirable. Inflation is measured many ways, but the Fed used core inflation which excludes food, gas and other things as they are considered too volatile to base policy on. Our wallets feel a different inflation then the Fed uses thats why volatile cost categories and stuff subject to price shocks, included in the CPI (a former Fed target variable), kick our financial asses.

    OK My head officially hurts now, I'm gonna go make a rum and coke.Click here to enlarge

  22. #47
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    We have always manipulated our currency on a regular basis. Every Fed meeting has the potential for direct manipulation, but usually it is indirect through the Fed indicating its bias in how it words its statements. My guess is Paul Volcker probably intervened in the currency markets more when he raised the Fed funds rate to 20% in the late 70's.

    I think the biggest difference between then and now is twofold. First transparency of the Fed begun under Greenspan and has continued under Bernanke. It used to be that you didn't know why the Fed did what it did until it acted and then the reasoning wouldn't be released forever until the meeting minutes were published or the chairman would be hauled in front of Congress for testimony. The second reason is the ease with which you or I can trade currencies. This is a relatively recent phenomena compared to the history of the central bank. Only banks, institutions, large corporations etc had this access before the trading vehicles that you see everywhere now (ETF's, forex accounts, futures...).



    True. China operates on a currency peg to the dollar. They can change that peg as they desire to meet their needs, there is no free market trading in their currency.



    It is a war with ongoing battles fought by central banks the world over. Anytime you read or hear about a central bank changing their rates is a currency manipulation. They change for internal economic reasons as well as in response to the behavior of other central banks. The external reasons are where the relativistic nature comes in.



    Currency is just another asset class. The dollar appreciated in value relative to Asian currencies in the 1990's during the Clinton administration. It was a specific policy pursued by Robert Rubin, Clinton's treasury Secretary. Many economists believe this led to the Asian currency crisis due to the dollar pegs certain asian nations had at the time.

    As long as there is fiat currency, inflation will always be there. There is no choice. That's why you always see the central bank targeting a particular inflation rate as opposed to a no inflation environment, which is pretty much impossible as well as undesirable. Inflation is measured many ways, but the Fed used core inflation which excludes food, gas and other things as they are considered too volatile to base policy on. Our wallets feel a different inflation then the Fed uses thats why volatile cost categories and stuff subject to price shocks, included in the CPI (a former Fed target variable), kick our financial asses.

    OK My head officially hurts now, I'm gonna go make a rum and coke.Click here to enlarge

    that made my head hurt even more, cuse I dont know economics and stuff lol

  23. #48
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    We have always manipulated our currency on a regular basis. Every Fed meeting has the potential for direct manipulation, but usually it is indirect through the Fed indicating its bias in how it words its statements. My guess is Paul Volcker probably intervened in the currency markets more when he raised the Fed funds rate to 20% in the late 70's.
    You mean since the FED? But we are manipulating it more than ever before now.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    First transparency of the Fed begun under Greenspan and has continued under Bernanke.
    The FED is about as transparent as concrete.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    True. China operates on a currency peg to the dollar. They can change that peg as they desire to meet their needs, there is no free market trading in their currency.
    They at least have their currency pegged to something.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    The external reasons are where the relativistic nature comes in.
    Would bubbles and crashes count as relativistic nature?

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    Currency is just another asset class. The dollar appreciated in value relative to Asian currencies in the 1990's during the Clinton administration. It was a specific policy pursued by Robert Rubin, Clinton's treasury Secretary. Many economists believe this led to the Asian currency crisis due to the dollar pegs certain asian nations had at the time.
    It appreciated because Japan tried printing their way out of a recession and they still are.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    As long as there is fiat currency, inflation will always be there. There is no choice.
    So let's change it. Before the Fed the dollar value for over a century was flat and even appreciated at times.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    That's why you always see the central bank targeting a particular inflation rate as opposed to a no inflation environment, which is pretty much impossible as well as undesirable. Inflation is measured many ways, but the Fed used core inflation which excludes food, gas and other things as they are considered too volatile to base policy on. Our wallets feel a different inflation then the Fed uses thats why volatile cost categories and stuff subject to price shocks, included in the CPI (a former Fed target variable), kick our financial asses.
    Why do you sound like Keynes?

  24. #49
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    You mean since the FED?
    Not sure of the ?

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    But we are manipulating it more than ever before now.


    Maybe, but I doubt it. Research FED policy during 1929 market crash (we've had the 2009 market crash), the great depression after the crash (which we have avoided), FED policy in reaction to Glass-Steagall in 1933, banking act of 1935, FED policy after the employment mandate after WW II, Bank holding company Act 1956, Humphrey Hawkins Act 1978, etc...

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    The FED is about as transparent as concrete.
    Maybe to most, but it is more transparent than it has ever been. Doesn't mean we know how to interpret what they are saying (kind of like when my wife talks to me).

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    They at least have their currency pegged to something.
    Currency pegs work as a protectionist measure for a while, but as long a the rest of the world has fiat currency, they always end up as inadequate monetary policy.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    Would bubbles and crashes count as relativistic nature?
    Nope. Bubbles and ensuing crashes are a result of bad policy decisions. How could anyone relate a company's stock trading with a PE in the 100's with no profit visibility be sensibly done? Works for a while when the greed factor kicks in, but when fear comes.... crash.... kapow!

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    It appreciated because Japan tried printing their way out of a recession and they still are.
    Revisionist history. Japan didn't cause the crisis through money printing. They jawboned a defense of the Yen hinting that they might raise interest rates (remove Yen from circulation the opposite of printing money). This caused currency speculators to rush out of other Asian currencies (because they arbitrage interest rates for the best returns) and those other currencies and markets started crashing. This included Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, South Korea and Indonesia principally. All of these countries maintained currency pegs, targets, etc... When they had to be bailed out by the dollar dominated IMF (there goes that reserve currency status again), which imposed conditions a failing economy could not resist, their ultimate need for the dollar to maintain their economies caused dollar appreciation.

    This isn't to say Japan did not have its own problems and still does, but the world still loans it money at near zero interest rates.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    So let's change it. Before the Fed the dollar value for over a century was flat and even appreciated at times.
    The genie is out of the bottle. Pandora's box is open.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by Sticky Click here to enlarge
    Why do you sound like Keynes?
    No offense, but it is because you have never read or studied John Maynard Keynes' economic philosophies. We are talking about currency flows and Keynes' major focus is a countries economic systemic behavior and its response to the systems' changes.

  25. #50
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    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    Not sure of the ?
    I mean we really have been manipulating it only since the FED started.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    Maybe, but I doubt it.
    QE1, QE2, QE3 infinity, bank bailouts on an unprecedented scale, how can you doubt it?

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    Maybe to most, but it is more transparent than it has ever been. Doesn't mean we know how to interpret what they are saying (kind of like when my wife talks to me).
    Heh, when you aren't transparent at all showing a couple details here and there of course will be more transparent than ever. How transparent is this?



    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    Currency pegs work as a protectionist measure for a while, but as long a the rest of the world has fiat currency, they always end up as inadequate monetary policy.
    Well why is their economy healthier and growing faster?

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    Revisionist history. Japan didn't cause the crisis through money printing.
    How so? They have tried to print their way out. It isn't working. Printing money causes inflation and really destroys the currency.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    The genie is out of the bottle. Pandora's box is open.
    So let's put it back in. Something needs to change.

    Click here to enlarge Originally Posted by yage202 Click here to enlarge
    No offense, but it is because you have never read or studied John Maynard Keynes' economic philosophies.
    No I've just felt their impact. If you think the monetary system is healthy and Keynes impact on it has been positive you haven't been paying attention to what is going and has been going on for the decade. What else will it take? A bigger crash? To the point the currency is just completely wiped out?

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